A Hero on Day 1.
One month ago, we said that the beginning of the end of the covid pandemic would mysteriously coincide with the Biden inauguration, and sure enough that’s precisely what has just happened. As BofA’s Ethan Harris writes overnight in his daily COVID news wrap, “with COVID cases falling and vaccines accelerating, this is probably the beginning of the end of the COVID crisis”, echoing similar notes from a variety of other banks published today.
What has sparked BofA’s optimism? Harris explains:
- Renewed restrictions and the end to the holiday season seem to be bending the cases curve.
- The vaccine rollout should continue to accelerate as new resources and effort is put into the project.
- There is one major caveat: new more contagious strains have arrived in the US. Bending the curve
The BofA economist then argues this point with his chart of the day, which shows that the US is now clearly over the hump, with 142,000 COVID cases in the US on Monday, down 32% from the prior Monday.... the seven day average has also dropped, to 209,000, down 16% from the peak on January 8th. In another good sign, Harris notes that “testing is increasing and the share of tests that come back positive is falling” and cheerfully adds that “It seems clear that an end to the holiday season, a modest increase in restrictions and a small increase in herd immunity is bending the COVID curve.” Read More