Why ARE coronavirus cases plummeting? New US infections have fallen 44% and 30% globally in past 3 weeks

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Daily Mail UK:

  • On Wednesday, a total of 110,679 new coronavirus infections were reported with a seven-day rolling average of 135,904, a 44% decline from the average three weeks earlier
  • The decline appears to be a global phenomenon, with new infections falling worldwide for the past three weeks in a row, the World Health Organization said Monday  
  • Hospitalizations have fallen nearly 30% from a peak of of 132,474 on January 6 to 92,880, the lowest figure seen since November 29
  • Currently, 44 states are seeing a decline in cases with just Alabama, Louisiana, Montana, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania trending upward, according to Johns Hopkins data 
  • California’s 21,451 new confirmed cases on Tuesday are about one-third the mid-December peak of 54,000
  • New York recorded 8,215 new infections on Tuesday, down from the record-high of 19,942 new cases reported on January 15
  • Health experts say it is too soon for vaccines to be playing a major role in the decline with just 8% of the population having received the first shot and fewer than 2% being fully immunized 
  • Officials say the drop is likely due to a higher number of people who’ve had the virus than official counts suggest, as many as 90 million people, and fewer people traveling than did over the winter holidays

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Hmmmmmmmmm! VS, isn’t that the way Europeans and most Asian nations signify a particular calendar date? 20-1-2021 is Jan 20, 2021. Here in America we use 1-20-2021. Either way, it’s the date of the Biden inauguration. Isn’t it grand to have the “right” president in office now! Just in time!

  2. Want to know the reason? Read this notice from the WHO to labs all over the world using the PCR test. Pay close attention to the date this notice was issued.

    https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

    WHO Information Notice for IVD Users 2020/05
    Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2
    20 January 2021 Medical product alert Geneva Reading time: 1 min (370 words)

    Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2

    Date: 13 January 2021

    WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2

    Target audience: laboratory professionals and users of IVDs.

    Purpose of this notice: clarify information previously provided by WHO. This notice supersedes WHO Information Notice for In Vitro Diagnostic Medical Device (IVD) Users 2020/05 version 1, issued 14 December 2020.

    Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.

    Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.

    WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

    WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

    Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

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