Yields at Risk of Shooting Up as Fed Defers Bond-Buying Changes
The Federal Reserve’s window to tinker with its bond-buying program may be narrowing, meaning there’s a risk that Treasury yields will climb faster than many predict.
At its final policy meeting of 2020, the U.S. central bank just decided not to tilt more purchases toward longer maturities — something that could’ve kept a lid on longer-term interest rates. And while the Fed didn’t rule out eventually making such a change, a healthier U.S. economy — possibly due to more fiscal stimulus if Democrats take control of the Senate after runoff elections on Jan. 5 — could make it harder for the central bank to justify, according to some investors.
The mere possibility that the Fed might act more overtly to anchor long-end borrowing costs at some point has helped cap yields at that part of the curve. It’s a big factor behind why the 10-year rate stayed below 1% this week even amid progress on stimulus talks and after the Fed’s decision to defer action. If that policy option were to disappear entirely, that could well provide scope for rates to move up. Read More