Central Banks Can’t Taper in this Slowdown

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Misses Institute: Recent macroeconomic data from the United States should worry us. Amid the reopening and the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent history, and with all the possible tailwinds from policy decisions, consumer confidence has plummeted to the lowest level since 2016.

Third Seal: Scarcity on Earth

When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand.’ Rev. 6:5

Retail sales have fallen sharply again in July, and the employment or industrial production data are far more than disappointing considering the level of stimulus and that GDP has returned to prepandemic level.

The use of industrial capacity, at 76 percent, is 4 percent below the average for the 1972–2020 period, and the labor participation rate, at 61.6 percent, has been stagnant for ten months and at 1980 levels.

The total savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has almost vanished from 33.8 percent to 9.4 percent.

Let’s put it in the context of a reopening that has been in place for more than a year, a fiscal stimulus equivalent to three trillion dollars, and a monetary stimulus of 1.7 trillion dollars in 2021.

The United States would go into a severe recession if it were not “doping ” the economy. Read More