NYT: What was once the worst-case scenario for climate change seems much less likely.

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Five years ago, the journalist David Wallace-Wells explored a worst-case scenario for climate change: one in which the planet warmed by as much as 5 degrees Celsius by 2100 — causing widespread extreme weather, economic collapse, famine and war.
Now, David sees that level of doom as much less likely, he writes in an essay for this Sunday’s climate issue of The New York Times Magazine, where he is a columnist. While 5 degrees of warming once seemed possible, scientists now estimate that the Earth is on track to warm by 2 to 3 degrees. That difference might not seem huge, but it translates to fewer record-breaking floods, storms, droughts and heat waves and potentially thousands or millions of lives saved in the coming decades.
“The window of possible climate futures is narrowing, and as a result, we are getting a clearer sense of what’s to come: a new world, full of disruption but also billions of people, well past climate normal and yet mercifully short of true climate apocalypse,” David wrote.
In other words, humanity has made progress on one of the most serious challenges it has ever faced. “I’ve grown more optimistic than I used to be,” David told me. “The endgame looks calmer and more stable than it did a few years ago.”
So how did we get to this point? There are three major explanations: First, the use of coal, which provides about 30 percent of the world’s energy, is expected to further decline. Second, renewable energy prices have plummeted since 2010 — solar power more than 85 percent, wind more than 55 percent — and that affordability has made them a viable alternative to fossil fuels.
Finally, global powers have adopted serious plans to fight climate change. Those countries include the United States, which recently enacted sweeping incentives for cleaner energy through the Inflation Reduction Act. Such policies could push warming down even more than experts estimate now.

Assessment: We can all relax now, the the climate apocalypse hoax for the year 2100 has been narrowly averted …

“While the earth remains, Seedtime and harvest, Cold and heat, Winter and summer, And day and night Shall not cease.” Genesis 8:22

4 COMMENTS

  1. A good comment VS, thank you.

    It seems from across the Pond one simple equation has been dropped out. Less CO2 in the atmosphere equates to lower food yields across the planet.

    So much for the drive for us all to go ‘veggie!’

    • “Less CO2 in the atmosphere equates to lower food yields across the planet.”

      You made an excellent point. I would bet the farm most young people think photosynthesis is a software program used to make their selfies look better. If you keep’em stupid for a couple of generations, this is the result.

      • ‘If you keep’em stupid for a couple of generations, this is the result.’

        Oh yes, very well put. Studied insouciance; applied lethargy and a greedy lust for the ‘self.’ I know of so many to whom that perfect applies, even in my step-family.

        In view of the rapidly developing prophetic fulfilment, our better-educated and more Biblically sound generation are a threat not to be ignored.

        Perhaps that is why our Health Service kills almost as many as it cures.

  2. You always hear about how the “science is settled” and now we should just move on and discuss what to do about climate change. What you almost never hear about are some of the factors contributing to the fluctuations in temperature over time (fluctuations, not life destroying temperature ranges). One is how solar activity influences the earth and second, how the earth’s core affects ocean temperature, which then warms or cools the whole planet.

    Exothermic Core Theory is pretty simple to understand and the cycles hold true over time. Here’s what it looks like: https://vimeo.com/223309160.

    And here’s the full explanation:
    https://theethicalskeptic.com/tag/core-exothermic-cycle/

    Synopsis – Exothermic (Cyclic) Core Theory of Climate Change
    1. The Earth’s core undergoes extreme exothermic change – sloughing high-latent-energy hexagonal closepack (HCP) iron from its H-layer and into the mantle where it converts to face centered cubic (FCC) iron plus kinetic energy (heat). Core magnetic permeability weakens and its geographic dipole wanders. Earth’s rotation slows from the mass exchange from core to mantle.

    2. The exothermic heat content from this eventually reaches Earth’s asthenosphere. Deep crude acyclic alkane pockets are heated and accelerate methane release into atmosphere. Methane ppms far outpace model predictions. Already warmer tundra releases carbon more quickly in the northern hemisphere each spring solar warming.

    3. Abyssal ocean conveyance belts pull novel heat content from small-footprint yet now much hotter contribution points exposed to the asthenosphere – and convey (not conduct, convect, nor radiate) this novel heat content through oceanic advection and upwelling systems to the surface of the ocean. Abyssal ocean currents (and consequently surface ones as well) speed up from the discrete addition of kinetic energy. Arctic and Antarctic polar ice sheets melt from the bottom up.

    4. Ocean heats atmosphere (or fails to cool it as well as it once did) much more readily than atmosphere heats ocean. This exothermic core-to-mantle equilibrium is cyclic, and can and will eventually reverse.

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