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El-Erian Says Fed Made “Worst Inflation Call Ever”

Written on . Posted in PT Global Economy.

Assessment: El-Erian doesn’t believe peak inflation has arrived and thinks consumer price increases could remain elevated in the months ahead …

New data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed price inflation in November rose to the highest in four decades. Americans are getting antsy about persistent inflation wiping out their real wage gains as Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned the Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not tapering its balance sheet to rein in inflation.

El-Erian told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the most significant miscalculation in decades is the Fed’s inability to characterize inflation correctly. As readers know, Fed Chair Jerome Powell retired the “transitory” narrative on Nov. 30 and opted to label inflation as persistent.

“The characterization of inflation as transitory — it’s probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve,” El-Erian said.

Scarcity on Earth

“And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.” Rev. 6:6

“It results in a high probability of a policy mistake,” he said. “So the Fed must quickly, starting this week, regain control of the inflation narrative and regain its own credibility. Otherwise, it will become a driver of higher inflation expectations that feed off themselves.”

El-Erian said Powell “needs to ease his foot off the accelerator” in reference to the $120 billion in bond buying every month. He said there is “no reason why they [Fed] should be injecting so much liquidity,” adding that the Fed should not be boosting housing prices at a time when an unaffordability crisis is emerging.

Read More @ Zero Hedge HERE

Palestinians Vote in Local Elections Amid Rising Anger with Abbas

Written on . Posted in PT Middle East.

Assessment: Abbas’ rivals, including Hamas, accused him of using the Jerusalem voting dispute as an excuse to cancel elections that polls showed he and his party would lose to the Islamist group …

Palestinians held municipal elections in the West Bank on Saturday in a rare democratic exercise and amid rising anger with President Mahmoud Abbas after he cancelled planned legislative and presidential votes earlier this year.

More than 400,000 Palestinians were eligible to cast ballots for representatives in 154 village councils in the West Bank, where Abbas’ Palestinian Authority has limited self-rule. Municipal votes are typically held every four or five years.

“Because the Lord has sworn: the Lord will have war with Amalek from generation to generation.” Exodus 17:16 

Municipal elections are not being held in Gaza, whose Islamist rulers Hamas are boycotting the vote amid a rift with Abbas’ Fatah party. The 86-year-old president postponed municipal votes in major West Bank cities, such as Ramallah, that could have been seen as a referendum on Abbas’ rule.

“These elections cannot be an alternative to legislative elections,” said Ahmad Issa, 23, outside a polling station in the West Bank village of Bir Nabala, adding that a legislative vote could offer “a horizon for the youth” and lead to reforms.

Read More @ Algemeiner HERE

Defense Min. Benny Gantz presents Iran attack timeline to US officials

Written on . Posted in PT Middle East.

(Defense Minister Benny Gantz and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meet outside the Pentagon, December 9, 2021)
The IDF has intensified planning for an attack against Iran. Last week, American sources revealed that Austin and Gantz were expected to discuss joint military preparations and a report on Kan said that the IDF was planning a massive aerial drill for this summer that would mock a strike against Iran.

Gantz met with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday. The conversations focused mostly on Iran and its continued pursuit of a nuclear capability, but some of the US officials also brought up Israeli settlement activity and their concern that building in the West Bank will block a future two-state solution.

“ … And Jerusalem will be trampled by Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled.” Luke 21:24

Jerusalem consulted with Washington on two previous strikes on Iran, one in June against a facility producing centrifuges in Karaj and another on a missile production site outside Tehran, The New York Times reported.
US President Joe Biden asked his National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan two months ago to review plans to attack Iran if diplomatic efforts fail, as well as the possibilities for increasing sanctions, according to the Times.

That leak comes as the US and Israel are increasingly at odds in their evaluation of the Iranian threat,

Read More @ JPost HERE

World Economy Entering Period Of Oil Scarcity, Halliburton CEO Says

Written on . Posted in PT Global Economy.

Assessment: Biden’s energy plan calls for the elimination of carbon from power generation by 2035.  The genesis of the Biden Plan, which can be found on the Democratic Party Platform website, is the Biden-Sanders Manifesto of July 20, 2020, which was submitted to the Democrat National Committee by co-Chairs John Kerry and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez …

Halliburton CEO and president Jeff Miller made waves this week by predicting that the world is due for a period of oil scarcity in comments at the World Petroleum Congress in Houston, Texas.

“I think that for the first time in a long time, we will see a buyer looking for a barrel of oil, as opposed to a barrel of oil looking for a buyer,” Miller said.

Since 2014, the oil industry has generally deemphasized building new infrastructure in the face of low prices. However, that trend may now catch up with the industry, which now finds demand for oil exceeding the available supply given current infrastructure.

Third Seal: Scarcity on Earth

“When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand.” Rev. 6:5

Some analysts have speculated that it is increasingly likely that oil prices will soon climb to $100 per barrel, a price unseen in the past seven years and which has serious potential to disrupt the economy.

An additional factor contributing to predicted oil scarcity is a labor shortage in the fossil fuel industry surpassing that in the general economy.

The widespread perception that fossil fuels will be marginalized in the future of energy and transportation makes long-term careers in petroleum unattractive to young workers, with many oil workers seeking to switch to renewables or leave the energy industry outright.

A recent survey revealed that 43 percent of oil industry employees sought to transition to other sectors in the next five years, as reported by Reuters.

As baby boomer employees retire, the industry struggles to replace them with young workers, who see the oil industry as unfavorable to long-term careers because of concerns about climate change models, and pressure by politicians, environmentalists, and investors to transition to renewable energy sources.

This combination of infrastructural underinvestment and labor shortages is likely to result in an oil supply stretched thin to meet demand, resulting in higher prices and possible shortages.

Read More @ Zero Hedge HERE

Russia says Ukraine could turn into re-run of Cuban missile crisis

Written on . Posted in PT World Order.

Assessment: “The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century” Vladimir Putin …

Russia said on Thursday that escalating tensions over Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis, when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made the comment when asked by a reporter if the current situation could turn into something resembling the 1962 Cold War standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union.

 “Son of man, set your face against Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshek and Tubal; prophesy against him and say: ‘This is what the Sovereign Lord says: I am against you, Gog, chief prince of[b] Meshek and Tubal. Ez. 38:2-3

“You know, it really could come to that,” Interfax news agency quoted him as saying. “If things continue as they are, it is entirely possible by the logic of events to suddenly wake up and see yourself in something similar.”

The Cuban crisis was triggered by the stationing of Soviet nuclear missiles on the Caribbean island and prompted the United States to impose a naval blockade to prevent Moscow shipping in more.

Moscow’s stated fear in Ukraine, which seeks to join NATO, is that the alliance will deploy missiles there and target them against Russia. NATO says it is a defensive alliance and such concerns are unwarranted.

Read More @ JPost HERE

‘Many’ Dead & Injured in Explosion at Hamas Weapons Storage Depot in Tyre, Lebanon – video

Written on . Posted in PT Middle East.

A Hamas weapons storage facility blew up late Friday night in the Burj al-Shemali section of Tyre, in Lebanon, according to Reuters. The Iranian-backed terror group maintains a presence in many so-called Palestinian Arab refugee camps in the country.

Civil defense sources said more than 20 people were killed and injured by the explosion, which occurred at the “Hamas-run” Abi bin Ka’ab Mosque, according to Lebanon’s L’Orient Today.

“Gebal, Ammon, and Amalek;
Philistia with the inhabitants of Tyre;
Assyria also has joined with them” Psalm 83:7-8

Ambulances were working to transport the injured as while explosions continued amid “a state of panic,” according to AlJadeed TV, which reported “the sounds of explosions were heard throughout Tyre and the region.”

“According to residents in Sour, explosive sounds were heard at 9 pm throughout the city. The scope of destruction was described as “large,” and “damage occurred in surrounding residential areas,” the news outlet reported.

Read More @ Jewish Press HERE

And Just Like That, Inflation Is About To Disappear?

Written on . Posted in PT Global Economy.

Assessment: Eventually they will simply remove the word inflation and all problems will go away …

Earlier this year, ,when inflation was still “transitory” two Fed chairs, Powell and Bernanke, made comments which we joked only make sense if the definition of inflation is changed, to wit.

*POWELL:FOMC PREPARED TO ADJUST POLICY IF EXPECTATIONS GO BEYOND

By changing the definition of PCE (personal consumption expenditures) and CPI (consumer price index) 

*BERNANKE: COMMODITY PRICES WON’T ADD TO INFLATION GOING FORWARD Why? Are we changing the definition of CPI again …

“And do not harm the oil and wine” Rev. 6:6

Sadly, our feeble attempts at humor were not unjustified, and as any economic history buff knows the US dramatically changed how it calculates consumer inflation back in the 1980s, an event extensively covered by AllianceBernstein former chief economist Joseph Carson on this website in the past (see “Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction“) with the most important difference being that while the CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, the current measure does not.

Instead, home price pressures have been swept in the purposefully nebulous Owner-Equivalent Rent which can be whatever politicians wants it to be (there have been other definitional changes, see here, here, here and here for more). Bottom line, however, is that if today’s CPI did include house prices in its measurement, the currently reported inflation numbers for house price inflation would push CPI (and core CPI) to double-digit gains.

Of course, it is politically inconvenient to report true inflation – just see what happens in any banana republic where society is fed up with runaway inflation. It’s also why politicians on both sides of the aisle are always eager to tweak the definition of inflation ever so slightly (or not so slightly) so it appears to be less than it truly is. After all, for them masking reality is a matter of political survival.

 Read More @ Zero Hedge HERE

China Vows To Open Fire on US Troops That Come to Taiwan’s Aid

Written on . Posted in PT World Order.

Assessment: Not quite 1 year into the Biden presidency and the world has three flashpoints: Taiwan, Ukraine and Iran. America’s enemies will continue to test weakness …

China’s military “will heavily attack U.S. troops who come to Taiwan’s rescue” if a war between China and Taiwan breaks out, a possibility that is increasingly likely as the Communist regime readies its war machine on Taiwan’s borders.

The latest threat to attack the United States during any standoff between China and Taiwan was issued Thursday in the Global Times, an official Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece that prints the regime’s propaganda. “It is credible that the [People’s Liberation Army] will heavily attack U.S. troops who come to Taiwan’s rescue,” the paper wrote. “Such credibility is increasingly overwhelming the deterrence that U.S. troops may have.”

“ Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared.’ Rev. 16:12

China’s latest threat to escalate tensions with Taiwan comes on the heels of remarks by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who said the United States is prepared to counter an attempt by China to forcefully seize Taiwan and bring it back into the Communist country’s orbit. The long-simmering standoff comes as the Biden administration confronts Russian attempts to invade Ukraine, a situation that could also prompt U.S. intervention.

China has been threatening to take Taiwan since the Biden administration took office, leading the United States to bolster the island’s defense and warn the CCP against escalation. Thursday’s Global Times editorial marks one of the first times in recent memory that China has actually threatened to attack U.S. troops who might come to Taiwan’s aid.

“If Washington supports the Taiwan authority’s path of seeking secession and encourages the Taiwan authority to rely on it, then reunification by force will definitely happen.

Read More @ Free Beacon HERE

LGBT activists are loudly and proudly trying to ‘normalize queerness’ in children’s literature

Written on . Posted in PT World Order.

Assessment: It is important, Prasad writes, not to “perpetuate” the “generational prejudices that we inherit from our elders …

This comes as no surprise to those of us who have been following the LGBT takeover of culture over the past decade or so, but it is still worth noting: Activists now feel comfortable enough to say the quiet part out loud. That is, as I’ve written in this space before, they are no longer pretending that the education (or re-education) of children is not the goal of their movement.

Writer Anukriti Prasad says as much this month in an article titled “How children’s literature can help in the move to normalise queerness.” This can be difficult, Prasad says, because many parents are still homophobic and dedicated to “heteronormativity.”

“For He established a testimony in Jacob, And appointed a law in Israel, Which He commanded our fathers, That they should make them known to their children;
6 That the generation to come might know them” Psalm 78:5-6

As such, it is important that the education children receive at school be designed to subvert the upbringing they might receive from such parents. An excerpt:

Nandini Choudhury, relationship expert and meditation mentor at a Kolkata-based wellness organisation called Crystal Minds, believes this cycle runs on modelling. “Being especially impressionable in their formative years, children often emulate their parents’ exhibited behaviour. Along with adopting demonstrated vocabulary and mannerisms, they also inherit the biases they hear most often. How they witness elders, whether at home or in school – the two most crucial sites in children’s lives – approaching various topics, defines the formation of their own responses to these concepts.”

It is important, Prasad writes, not to “perpetuate” the “generational prejudices that we inherit from our elders.”

Prices Climb At Fastest Pace Since 1982… But It Could Have Been Worse

Written on . Posted in PT Global Economy.

Assessment: It may have been the death knell for team transitory, with Chair Powell taking pains to retire the term in his recent testimony before Congress …

Having surged faster than expected in 7 of the last 8 months, all eyes are on this morning’s Consumer Price Index as this is the last big release ahead of next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, where Deutsche Bank economists (among many others) are expecting they’ll double the pace of tapering.

Chair Powell himself reinforced those expectations in recent testimony, stopping just shy of unilaterally announcing the faster taper. Crucially, he noted this CPI print and the evolution of the virus were potential roadblocks to a faster taper next week.

“And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine” Rev. 6:6

And sure enough, CPI printed +6.8% YoY – right as expected and the fastest rate of increase since 1982…

Core CPI – stripping out everything you spend money on every day – rose at 4.9% YoY – its highest level since 1991…

In another blow for team transitory, the drivers of inflation were increasingly broad-based, rather than just in a few categories affected by the pandemic. Both Goods and Services costs rose, as did Food and Energy prices…

Read More @ Zero Hedge HERE