In December 2017 I wrote a paper titled “What causes asset bubbles” featuring the chart below. A few days later, Bitcoin prices peaked and fell 85% within a year. It seems Bitcoin is back. I believe we are in the midst of another bubble, but this time I am not confident in calling its top. My updated chart and thoughts are below1.
First, let’s not kid ourselves. Bitcoin in its current form is not a viable candidate as a currency replacement. If we measured the US annual inflation in Bitcoin instead of dollars, you’d have seen 275% inflation in 2018, -50% deflation in 2019, -75% deflation in 2020. A healthy society cannot function with that kind of price volatility. The currency must be stable enough that if you get paid on Friday you know what kind of dinner you can buy on Sunday. While it may mature in the future, Bitcoin as it exists is largely a speculative asset. Read More
Iran has announced that it is now enriching uranium to 20%. Joe Biden is about to be sworn in as President of the United States. If those two things don’t terrify you, I don’t know what will.
Natural uranium is useless in the construction of an atomic bomb. In order for the uranium to be useable the concentration of the Uranium-235 isotope, a tiny fraction of what is found in uranium ore, must be dramatically increased. The precise level of enrichment necessary is a state secret, but most open sources use figures somewhere between 80 and 90 percent.
A number of techniques can be used to carry out this enrichment. All follow the same trajectory, however. Most of the time it takes to reach the desired enrichment level and create what is known as highly enriched uranium (HEU) is invested upfront. Just getting to 3.5% enrichment eats up 75% of your time. By the time 20% enrichment is reached, you are 90% of the way through the entire process.
In short, once the Iranians have uranium in hand, which has been enriched to the 20% level, they are virtually done. Read More
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has urged Vice President Mike Pence to use the 25th Amendment to remove President Donald Trump. She threatened to impeach Trump if he did not. Pelosi gave members of Congress a roadmap on two such measures on Sunday.
Why is she so insistent on these desperate attempts to remove Trump, who will leave office in ten days, anyway? While some of Trump’s statements during the Capitol riots were beyond the pale, the president has since condemned the rioters and promised to support a peaceful transition of power.
f Pence and the Cabinet use the 25th Amendment, declaring that Trump is unable to fulfill his duties as president, Trump will have an eight-day period to remain president before he is removed. If the House of Representatives votes to impeach Trump, the Senate would almost certainly not remove Trump before January 20. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will not reconvene the Senate until January 19, effectively dooming impeachment while Trump is in office.
Both the 25th Amendment and impeachment would also set horrible constitutional precedents.
Democrats appear set to impeach Trump for allegedly inciting the Capitol riots — even though the president never told his supporters to break into the Capitol or engage in violence. ‘
This would set a precedent that Congress could impeach a president if the majority party interprets aggressive rhetoric as incitement to violence. If the Cabinet uses the 25th Amendment, it would set the precedent that a Cabinet could declare a president mentally unfit, removing him or her even if he or she were able to carry out the duties of president.
Even so, Pelosi revealed her plans in a letter to fellow members of Congress on Sunday. She announced that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-N.Y.) will request unanimous consent to bring up a resolution calling on Pence to activate the 25th Amendment. Without unanimous consent, the House will bring up the resolution on Tuesday. The resolution calls on Pence to respond within 24 hours. If he does not respond, the House will consider impeachment.
In an interview with CBS News’ 60 Minutes correspondent Leslie Stahl, Pelosi explained why Democrats are so desperate to impeach Trump.
“There is a possibility that after all of this, there’s no punishment, no consequence, and he could run again for president,” Stahl said. Read More
Google on Friday suspended Parler its app store citing posts inciting violence
Apple also issued the social networking app with a 24-hour warning to clean up its act in moderating posts before also being removed from its app store
The app saw a major spike in traffic after the threats from the two tech giants left people rushing to download Parler before it is suspended
Twitter also permanently banned President Trump’s Twitter account on Friday night which may have added further to the rush
Parler’s Chief Policy Officer Amy Peikoff claimed it is being targeted as a conservative platform that refuses to fact check its users
She said that its users did not want to ‘live in the world of Orwell’s 1984’
Yet she admitted that the company would be hit hard by any suspension
With Donald Trump conceding and both Georgia Senate races going to Democrats, it’s time to start thinking about the damage a Joe Biden presidency might do to our economy. Without any restraint from Republicans in Congress, it’s likely some old Obama-era ideas such as carbon taxes and cap and trade may soon be resurrected.
In the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday, Andreas Kluth brought forth the idea of a partnership between the United States and the European Union, essentially forming a new transatlantic “climate club.”
“The geopolitical promise of this idea is to resurrect the notion of the ‘West’ at a time when the U.S. and Europe are drifting apart but still hoping to rejuvenate their alliance after Joe Biden becomes president.
The even bigger goal is to win the struggle against global warming, which both Biden and the E.U. cite as their priority,” Kluth writes. Read More
The surprise cuts by Saudi Arabia following the OPEC+ meeting have provided oil bulls with a major boost, sending Brent above $55.
Friday, January 8th, 2021
Brent topped $55 per barrel at the end of the week, as the pledge from Saudi Arabia to cut deeper has built a solid rally. Other forces are at play as well, including monetary stimulus, the prospects of deeper fiscal stimulus in the U.S., and vaccine optimism. “The past 10 weeks of trading have seen only one weekly decline, which was comparatively small,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG. “This is testimony to the strength of the oil market in the last 2 1/2 months.”
Cold winter rallies coal and gas. Thermal coal prices in China are shooting up, and JKM prices for LNG are skyrocketing. Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivery in Asia jumped to a six-year high. A cold winter across the northern hemisphere is contributing to price gains. Javier Blas of Bloomberg notes that at least one LNG spot cargo was sold for $33-$36/MMBtu, which would be a historically high price. Read More
Thursday we posted some details about some of the people who entered the Capitol during the riot on Wednesday. One of those individuals is John Sullivan.
According to the video Sullivan captured of the events, he encouraged protesters to enter the Capitol.
Sullivan said he also intended to “support the Black community” with his attendance, but also feels it was “important to understand” those who were protesting in support of President Donald Trump.
But some of the 40-minute video he posted to his social media sites contradicts his assertion that he and another woman were “only filming” the actions and not participating as he can be heard in the video encouraging people to join them as they push their way through police barricades.
Just after people broke into the building, Sullivan — wearing a gas mask and wielding an iPhone on a stabilizing stick — and a woman who said Wednesday that she was making a documentary on Sullivan, are on the first porch area outside the entrance looking back over the throngs of people around the Capitol.
They can be heard encouraging people to climb the wall, saying, “Come on. Let’s go!” Read More
Circle your calendars because Biden will announce a package worth ‘trillions’ next week to boost the economy.
He will propose an entire stimulus package and will speak with Pelosi and other Democrat leaders today. He said the price tag of the package will be ‘high’ and in the ‘trillions’. Read More …
As part of the celebrations of Abbas’ Fatah Movement’s 56th anniversary, official PA TV broadcast a short video lauding and emphasizing Fatah’s terror history. While Abbas is heard speaking about Fatah’s “achievements,” the filler shows pictures of terrorists and mass murderers who participated or planned the most lethal terror attacks against Israel: Arch-terrorist Abu Jihad who planned the murder of at least 125; Dalal Mughrabi who led the murder of 37 civilians, among them 12 children; and Salah Khalaf who headed the Black September terror organization that carried out the massacre of the 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972”:
Top Democrats cheered far-left Twitter’s decision to ban President Donald Trump on Friday night, calling the controversial move “long overdue.”
Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), who most claim is a “moderate” or a “centrist,” cheered the political censorship, writing on Twitter: “Thank you @twitter for taking this action. We must come together as a country to heal and find a common path forward.”
Two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton simply tweeted out a check mark in response to a previous tweet of hers where she called for Trump to “delete your account.”
Caleb Howe
@CalebHowe
I mean, objectively this makes no sense at all. “We must find a common path by kicking most of you off it.”
@RepBarbaraLee·
Let’s be clear: this attack was also aimed at our free press, which is central to our democracy. Thank you to the journalists who continued to do their jobs under these dangerous circumstances. We must ensure freedom of the press, a fundamental guarantee of our constitution.
Senator Joe Manchin
@Sen_JoeManchin
Thank you @twitter for taking this action. We must come together as a country to heal and find a common path forward. https://twitter.com/twittersafety/
