Assessment: There are multiple intended recipients for Iran’s brinkmanship messaging, which is calculated to intimidate but not spark a full-scale war at this time.
The 12 ballistic missiles fired from an Iranian base at Erbil, in the northern Kurdish region of Iraq, constituted a display of capabilities by the Islamic Republic, which were intended to intimidate but not to spark a war at this time.
In true to form Iranian calculated brinkmanship, the missiles—fired from the Kermanshah region of Iran—covered some 340 kilometers (215 miles) and likely were medium-range Fatah 110 ballistic missiles, according to an analysis by the Alma Center, an Israeli defense watchdog.
“For seven months the Israelites will be burying them in order to cleanse the land.” Ez. 39:12 NIV
“If these missiles had landed in a crowded urban area, they would have caused considerable damage,” noted Alma, stating that the missiles were likely precision-guided projectiles. The fact that these missiles, carrying a half-ton warhead, didn’t slam into populated areas is likely no coincidence.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that the missiles targeted a Mossad headquarters in Erbil. The missiles hit an empty building not far from the American Consulate in Erbil.
In taking this action, the Iranians exhibited their advanced precision-guided missile capabilities, trampled Iraq’s sovereignty with immunity and sent out warnings to multiple recipients.
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