India, petrodollars, rubles, Russian natural gas, US dollar, Venezuela, yuan
In September 2020, Michael Every of Rabobank floated the question: What possible disruption is coming that requires China to start massive stockpiling of all possible commodities?
It was no secret by 2021, China panic hoarded half of the world’s maize and other grains resulting in increased food inflation.
China’s buying spree of all commodities left many market observers puzzled by Beijing’s stockpiling motives. Now we understand the second-largest economy in the world was forecasting a global catastrophe of widespread famine due to disrupted food supply chains.
Global food supplies were already tight on a post-COVID basis due to snarled supply chains and adverse weather conditions in key growing areas worldwide. The Ukraine invasion by Russia was a shock. It fractured global food supply chains and sent food prices to record highs with the very risk shortages will materialize in emerging market economies dependent on the eastern European country.
“And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A [d]quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.” Re. 6:6
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters of corn and wheat. Before the invasion, Ukraine was the second-largest supplier of grains for the European Union and one of the largest suppliers for emerging markets in Asia and Africa. Breaking down the numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 10% of global wheat, 12.6% of global barley, and 15.3% of global maize. This year harvest will be severely reduced because of war.
Last week, the United Nations (UN) World Food Programme (WFP) warned that disruptions in Ukraine “risk imminent famine and starvation in more places around the world.”
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