WORK FROM HOME THREATENS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUATIONS
“I don’t see any way of avoiding a great deal of pain in the commercial real estate market in 2021. It is almost inevitable. My friends at the Federal Reserve and FDIC are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with what’s going on in the commercial real estate world.”
Cam Fine, Former President of Independent Community Bankers of America
WFH THREATENS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUATIONS
Investors hold $3.4T in commercial real estate debt via bonds, direct loans, and securitized loan bundles. Core city commercial real estate valuations could decline if millions of employees work from home (WFH) permanently. Most analysts assume that once virus infections are contained or ended by vaccinations, workers will flock back to cities. The question is: will tens of thousands of workers commute to offices after buying homes in exurbs and other states? The following chart shows the top metro areas for migration based on USPS move data. Information services and banking centers are hotspots of migration to suburbs or other regions. A total of 238k workers have moved out of the top five urban areas since the pandemic started. Read More



