Assessment: With US power diminishing around the world Taiwan, Ukraine, Venezuela, Chile, Myanmar, Libya, Afghanistan (the best armed terror group in the world) and Hong Kong are descending into authoritarianism …
“Chinese control of Taiwan would dramatically reinforce the Communist Party’s prestige at home and eliminate the island as a viable model of a democratic alternative to authoritarian Party rule. It would also give China a foothold in the so-called first island chain, the line which runs through the string of islands from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo, which enclose China’s coastal seas,” Reuters noted when running through a list of possible invasion scenarios in November.
“Then I stood on the sand of the sea. And I saw a beast rising up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and on his horns ten crowns, and on his heads a blasphemous name” Rev. 13:1
Some of those scenarios envision China provoking a conflict by getting carried away with “gray zone” tactics and refusing to back down, or by moving to take some of Taiwan’s outlying islands and underestimating the resolve of Taiwanese forces to defend them. Many analysts believe Chinese dictator Xi Jinping is resolved to grab Taiwan before he dies, retires, or loses power.
Seizing Taiwan may appeal to Chinese leaders as a bold move that would destroy the credibility of the United States and Europe, frightening other Asian powers into China’s orbit because they can no longer rely on Western security guarantees.
The death of democracy in Taiwan could threaten its survival in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and elsewhere.
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